The report sheds light on the G20 agenda under Chinese leadership in 2016
The media launch of the report “China's G20 Year and the New Paradigm: Emphasis on Global Governance Pointing the Way to 2017 and Beyond” was held at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China (RDCY) in Beijing on December 22, 2016. The event began with introductory remarks by Chen Xiaochen, Deputy Director of RDCY Department of International Studies followed by keynote remarks by Wang Wen, Executive Dean of RDCY. Feride Inan, the report’s author, TEPAV Policy Analyst and RDCY visiting fellow, presented the report that sheds light on the G20 agenda under Chinese leadership in 2016 and on where China and the G20 stand in terms of their role in global economic governance. Based on this analysis the report offers a number of recommendations for the German G20 presidency in 2017 and beyond.
Ayşegül Aytaç & Ussal Sahbaz
The gap between male and female participation in the labor force, youth unemployment, and shortages of skilled labor are just some of the global issues of significance discussed during Turkey’s presidency of the G20. Although the G20 has committed to reducing the gap between male and female participation in G20 countries by 25% by 2025, there is no such G20 target for youth unemployment, which reached 13.1% globally in 2014. Moreover, across G20 countries it is projected that 15% of youth will be permanently left out of the labor market by 2025. For this reason, in order to integrate especially younger people into the labor market and also stimulate innovation, a significant number of countries are seeking to ameliorate these problems by launching specific visa programs for entrepreneurs.
Anna Kurguzova & Ussal Sahbaz
Countries across the globe experience a large and growing gap between infrastructure needs and the resources that governments have historically invested in meeting those needs. There is a big pool of literature on how to close the infrastructure gap. Multilateral institutions, international organizations, as well as private-sector companies, have all contributed to this pool.
Turkey’s G20 Presidency ended with the Antalya Summit this week. Turkey held 170+ meetings over the course of its G20 presidency – more than any previous host – the outcomes of which are reflected in the wealth of topics covered by the final communiqué. Overall the communiqué reflects a strong emphasis on inclusivity, and developmental issues including the sustainable development goals (SDGs), energy access, climate change, and refugee crises. The two items that stand out are the inclusion of the Internet for the first time in a leaders’ declaration and the focus on small and enterprises (SMEs). The economic and financial agenda is less groundbreaking, with successes in these areas limited to the completion of ongoing initiatives by the Financial Stability Board (FSB), the monitoring of progress on implementation of reforms and targets, as well as institutional capacity building.
Now in its fourth year, the Think20 (T20) is an official engagement group of the G20. This year, the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), an independent think tank in Ankara, coordinated the T20 activities. The T20 has a different purpose from the other engagement groups because it is not an advocacy platform; it does not campaign on behalf of a specific social group with a defined set of priorities. Building on an ideal first articulated at the inaugural Think20 meeting in Mexico City, the T20 serves as an “ideas bank” for G20 governments, bringing innovativeness to the G20 agenda. In this role, T20 develops new policies, new ideas, new initiatives, and new projects to support the agendas of G20 policymakers and other official G20 engagements groups.
12/11/2015(L20), academia (T20), women (W20) and youth (Y20) are highly concerned about the refugee crisis, and believe that greater collective action on the issue is needed.
Matthew P. Goodman & Daniel Remler
"As leaders of the world’s major economies prepare to gather this month for their tenth Group of 20 (G20) Summit, the question arises again as to whether a forum that proved so useful in crisis can remain relevant in more normal times. This year’s meeting in Antalya, Turkey, is unlikely to provide a satisfying answer. G20 leaders will not solve the most pressing problem in today’s global economy—weak and unbalanced growth—but they will do enough useful things to hint at the group’s promise. To back up the G20’s claim to be the “premier forum for our international economic cooperation,” leaders should move away from grand action plans and refocus the group’s work on tangible steps toward long-term growth and resilience of the global economy..."
"The Internet economy is expected to reach $4.2 trillion in 2016. If the Internet were a nation, its economy would be the fifth largest in the world. The growth of the Internet economy is on par with China’s growth rate. If the Internet were a sector, it would have a greater weight in global GDP than agriculture or utilities. Emerging digital technologies such as social, mobile, analytics and cloud that has the Internet as its backbone have become the new forces acting on competitiveness, growth and job creation. Arguably, no other emerging trend has been as impactful in transforming the global economy in recent years.
Digital technologies bring a new set of economic and regulatory challenges. To name a few, cybersecurity, regulation of content, cross-border data flows, and protection of personal data are some of the emerging international regulatory challenges..."
"G20 engagement group representatives from Business (B20), Civil Society (C20), Labour (L20), Think Tanks (T20), Women (W20), and Youth (Y20) have contributed to the 18th issue of the G20 Monitor. The representatives address how their groups have contributed to the G20 process in 2015, their priorities for the G20, and what would constitute success in terms of possible outcomes from the Antalya Summit.
Feride İnan and Ussal Sahbaz of TEPAV explain the Think 20 process in their article “Turkey’s 2015 Think 20”. They advocate for the G20 to move in radically different directions from the other engagement groups by thinking ‘outside the box’ in 2015. The T20 in 2015 has placed inclusive participation at the centre of their efforts and enlarged the T20 agenda to include topics that are currently outside of the G20’s current focus. In particular, İnan and Sahbaz argue that the G20 needs to expand its remit to include a focus on technology and innovation, and the Turkish T20 chairs are seeking to launch a Global Policy Dialogue Platform at the Antalya Summit. The T20 does not see itself as an advocacy platform, and at the time of publishing, T20 Turkey has not delivered a set of concrete, specific recommendations to advance the G20’s agenda.
"Global economic slowdown is highly related to a weakening in demand for products and labor. From supply side, we produce more with less labor input, not only in developed countries, but also in large part of developing world. From demand side, consumer preferences experienced fundamental changes as well. We use to buy generic-local products produced by domestic producers, but our demand has been increasingly shifting to specific global products, often identified with brand names. Globalization has opened the door to a large pool of cheaper labor with foreign investment or outsourcing backed by increasing capital mobility. In addition to that, under globalization, trade boomed and exposed consumers to the same products found everywhere in the world. Cheaper and better made quality products made by multinationals quickly gained the hearts of consumers over generic products supplied by local manufacturers. Technological advancement, on the other hand, implied not only producing more advanced products but also at a lower cost through automation, less dependent on local capacity, and with less labor altogether.."
Gary Hufbauer, Euijin Jung, Tyler Moran, and Martin Vieiro
"The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has embarked on an ambitious multipart project, titled Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS), with 15 “Actions” to prevent multinational corporations (MNCs) from escaping their “fair share” of the tax burden. Although the tax returns of these MNCs comply with the laws of every country where they do business, the proposition that MNCs need to pay more tax enjoys considerable political resonance as government budgets are strained, the world economy is struggling, income inequality is rising, and the news media have publicized instances of corporations legally lowering their global tax burdens by reporting income in low-tax juris- dictions and expenses in high-tax jurisdictions. To achieve the goal of increasing taxes on MNCs, the OECD—spurred by G-20 finance ministers—recommends changes in national legislation, revision of existing bilateral tax treaties, and a new multilateral agreement for participating countries. "
IMF Executive Director
Speech at The Center for International Governance Innovation
I will start with a brief overview of the current global conjuncture and risks, followed by the key medium- to long term challenges facing the global economy. I will then talk about how Turkey as the current chair of the G20, has responded to those challenges and incorporated them into the G20 agenda as well as how much progress has been achieved in those areas. I will conclude with some brief remarks on the current state of and the medium-term challenges for the Turkish economy.
Regarding the global conjuncture, outlook and risks, I would like to highlight 4 points very briefly.
The 17th issue of the G20 Monitor examines the progress made by the 2015 Turkish G20 Presidency and explores potential priority areas for the 2016 Chinese Presidency.
The G20 is making headway on Turkey’s priorities of investment, implementation, and inclusiveness. Turkey appears to be particularly focused on inclusiveness through promoting opportunities for small and medium sized enterprises and low-income developing countries.
The 2016 Chinese G20 Presidency is highly anticipated. China should encourage the G20 to implement past commitments, push forward unsolved issues on the economic agenda, and react to new global developments.
Amar Bhattacharya, Jeremy Oppenheim, Nicholas Stern
The agendas of accelerating sustainable development and eradicating poverty and that of climate change are deeply intertwined. Growth strategies that fail to tackle poverty and/or climate change will prove to be unsustainable, and vice versa. A common denominator to the success of both agendas is infrastructure development. Infrastructure is an essential component of growth, development, poverty reduction, and environmental sustainability.
The world is in the midst of a historic structural transformation, with developing countries becoming the major drivers of global savings, investment, and growth, and with it driving the largest wave of urbanization in world history. At the same time, the next 15 years will also be crucial for arresting the growing carbon footprint of the global economy and its impact on the climate system.
Simon J. Evenett
"The past month has seen the publication of four reports that reveal much about the slowdown of export growth and the trade distortions that have the greatest reach. Since restoring economic growth is a key G-20 mandate factors that hold back global exports should be a priority. The G-20 should rein in the most important trade distortions, many of which don’t receive the attention they deserve in official monitoring of protectionism."
Feride İnan & Güneş Aşık
Presently, Female Labor Force Participation (hereafter cited as FLFP) in Turkey is exceptionally low by international standards and had been in long-term decline until recently. In 2012, the female participation rate at 29,5 % was the lowest in the OECD and second lowest amongst G20 economies; the employment rate stood at 26,3 %. Time series evidence suggests that FLFP in Turkey has been following a U-shaped pattern reflecting the relationship between FLFP and the changing composition of the labor force away from agriculture towards nonagricultural activities (Uraz et al 2009, Dayioglu & Kırdar 2009, Erman 1998, SPO 2007, Taymaz 2009, World Bank 2009, 2004). The upward trend in FLFP since 2005 is driven by a growing number of women in salaried work that started to increase faster than the number of women working in agriculture. Between 2004 and 2012, many women moved out of agricultural and informal sector jobs to the formal economy although informality is still very high for women at 54% in 2012 (TurkStat Labor Force Statistics).
Susan Harris Rimmer
The Australian National University
This article seeks to evaluate Australia as host of the Brisbane G20 Summit in 2014. The Australian G20 government, it appears, aimed to move the G20 from focusing on just responding to the financial crisis to a future growth orientation concentrating on structural reforms. To achieve this, Australia chose a narrow economic approach to the agenda. The Presidency sought to avoid engaging with broader security or climate change challenges. This effort to narrow focus and move away from a “war cabinet” approach met, however, with quite mixed success. A strong performance at the regulatory level, an emphasis on economic fundamentals and a place-branding approach to the Leaders’ Summit, all efforts of the Australian host, appear to have been insufficient for Australia’s G20 Presidency. Three additional factors seem necessary for a middle power like Australia to have impact on hosting the Leaders’ Summit:
Koç University, CEPR, KU-TUSIAD ERF and
T20 National Advisory Council Member
"The global financial crisis of 2007-2008 has been termed as the most synchronized recession since the Great Depression in the 1930’s. In its aftermath, we are observing a multitude of changes in the global economy and global governance. For one, the G-20 forum comprising industrialized and emerging economies has acquired added importance in promoting international cooperation as a way of dealing with the impact of the global financial crisis. The growing importance of the G-20 is arising from the strength of the emerging economies together with the disparate response of countries during the global recession. Specifically, we have observed short and sharp recessions for a group of prominent emerging economies such Brazil, Mexico, Russia, S. Korea, and Turkey whereas the G-7 countries have typically displayed U-shaped recessions, with countries such as the UK, the US, France and Japan experiencing large declines in output and a slow rebound. Furthermore, in countries such as Spain, Italy, Portugal, Hungary, and Greece suffering from asset price bubbles, large fiscal deficits and unsustainable levels of debt, output has been very slow to pick up (or, in the case of Greece, even shown persistent declines)..."
"Conscious of the financing challenge facing small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and the consequences for growth and investment, BIAC and B20 Turkey hosted a special event on Business Access to Global Value Chains and Financing SMEs on 4 June 2015 at the OECD Headquarters in Paris. Participants included senior representatives from SME associations, financial firms, multinational companies, governments, international organizations, and business federations. The event sought to pave the way for actions to support SMEs in GVCs, in contribution to the G20 Leaders’ Summit in November 2015...."
Think 20 Turkey
"Under the Turkish Presidency of the G20, the Turkish Think-20 (T20) organized a two-day seminar on “Enhancing Innovation and International Technology Diffusion” in Berlin on 18 and 19 May 2015, bringing together representatives from government, business and academia from G20 countries. The seminar was hosted by the Economic Policy Forum (EPF) and the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV)..."
Domenico Lombardi and Samantha St. Amand
This policy brief is a stock-taking of the proceedings of the Think 20 conference held in Ottawa on May 3–5, 2015, and co-hosted by the Centre for International Governance Innovation and The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey by Domenico Lombardi, Director of the Global Economy Program and Samantha St. Amand, Global Economy Research Associate.
Ussal Sahbaz and Feride Inan
"Turkey started its G-20 presidency in 2015 with three priorities – inclusiveness, investment and implementation – and the crosscutting themes of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and low-income developing countries (LIDCs). Of these, inclusiveness and LIDCs are directly relevant to Africa. Now that the first quarter of Turkey’s G-20 presidency is over, it is a good time to assess its implications for Africa, and make recommendations for the next three-quarters ahead of the Antalya Summit...."
Think 20 Turkey
"Think-20 (T20) is a network of premier think tanks from the G20 economies and is as an outreach group of the G20. T20 produces ideas to help the G20 on delivering concrete and sustainable policy measures and serves as an "ideas bank" for G20 policy-makers. This note is a T20 proposal for the establishment of a Global Skills Accelerator emphasizing the need for global cooperation to develop skills and capacities in all countries that match international market standards..."
Manuel F. Montes & Guillermo Wierzba
The South Centre & CEFID-AR
"The lack of an appropriate multilateral legal framework, allowing the utilization of a predictable and rapid mechanism to guide the restructuring of sovereign debt generates the proliferation of incentives that dramatically increase costs both for debtors and "good faith” creditors. The recent experience of Argentina demonstrates that it is possible for "vulture funds" to get rulings in excess of the legal and contractual framework. Over the past three decades, the changes that took place in global finance, combined with the political, institutional and legal reforms that have accompanied these processes, consolidated a set of new challenges for sovereign debt restructuring processes. The improvements in debt contracts provisions do not fully resolve the problem. Furthermore, the establishment of a statutory mechanism that ensures a set of conditions that should be respected by all countries subscribing the agreement would be necessary even for such clauses to be effective."
Think 20 Turkey Policy Brief
The following multipronged framework could serve as a starting point for G20 efforts to play an important direct and catalytic role in addressing pervasive infrastructure deficits in a more sustainable way:
• Implement country structural reform commitments, as embodied in growth plans. Twenty seven per cent of the G20’s two per cent growth target is expected to come from direct investment and infrastructure measures.
• Follow through on the commitment to establish the Global Infrastructure Hub in Sydney, to develop a knowledge-sharing platform, address data gaps, and develop a consolidated database of infrastructure projects connected to national databases, to help match potential investors with projects.
Selin Arslanhan Memiş
"1. Major science and technology-driven changes reshape global manufacturing and value chains in recent years. Developments in technology and innovation based strategies have become the basic factors of competitiveness at the level of both countries and companies. One of the basic determinants of economic growth is productivity, which rises with technological change. The focus of new technologies is to enhance productivity and provide solutions for the challenges created by global megatrends in demographics, globalisation and sustainability. At the Brisbane summit in Australia, G20 Leaders set the additional 2.1% growth target by 2018. Within this context, science and technology are critical due to their contribution to the rate of growth as well as its sustainability.
2. Despite being critical for both sustainable growth and the 2.1% target, technology and innovation have not been moved in G20 agenda yet. The parties made an effort to this end over the past years, the most recent of which was the creation of an Innovation-20 group around the G20 summit in Australia last year, as well as the organization of a conference focusing on sustainable growth and biotechnology. This year, during the G20 presidency of Turkey, technology and innovation have been included among the T20 themes. This theme is significant for taking into consideration global challenges and sustainability as well as shaping the future agenda of G20..."
• Turkey's efforts for the G20’s central growth narrative to encompass strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive growth are widely supported. The focus should now turn to on-the-ground outcomes that can be delivered at the leaders’ summit in Antalya in November, such as through structural reforms, actions to improve employment (particularly for women and youth), advancement of the international tax agenda, and promotion of small and medium-sized enterprises.
• The G20 also needs to demonstrate that it is ‘doing’ as well as ‘talking’. The delivery of the growth strategies that leaders endorsed in Brisbane 2014 is crucial to G20 credibility, and more can be done to engage the public in the accountability process. Establishing the Global Infrastructure Hub in Sydney will also signal that the G20 is taking action on investment.
• The Ebola epidemic highlighted the importance of cross-border health security to long-term economic resilience. The G20 should develop a narrowly targeted global health governance agenda focused on improving WHO operations, enhancing health risk surveillance, and securing the development of medicines and vaccines that predominantly benefit the poor..
The ninth Group of Twenty (G20) summit, taking place in Brisbane, Australia on November 15- 16, 2014, is an unusually significant event. It comes with the unprecedented geopolitical drama and risks arising from Russia’s forceful annexation of Crimea, its subsequent military incursions in eastern Ukraine, and the question of whether President Putin will actually attend the summit and how he will be treated there if he does. It also faces a severe security threat from the brutal terrorism of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (ISIL) now expanding through Syria and Iraq and the deadly Ebola epidemic devastating the lives and economic fortunes of West Africa and infecting Europe and the United States...
The origin and the development of the Group of Twenty (G20) is closely related to addressing the financial crisis through a mechanism of global governance. In 1999, the mechanism of the G20 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors was set up to prevent the reoccurrence and spread of a crisis similar to the Asian financial crisis. In 2008, due to the "financial tsunami", the then French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown suggested that the G20 be upgraded to a leaders summit, and the then US President George W. Bush agreed to organize it.
Turkey’s G20 presidency in 2015 comes at a key moment for the global economy. International cooperation is needed to reduce economic risks and promote growth, and Turkey’s ‘middle power’ status could help it drive this process.
Ussal Şahbaz & Feride İnan & Ayşegül Aytaç
The first meeting of the G20 Employment Working Group (EWG) took place in Antalya on 26-27 February 2015. At the session titled "Cooperation with social partners and other engagement groups" Business20 and Labour20 and Think20 representatives presented their recommendations and ideas to the members of the EWG, representatives of international organizations and invited countries. Business20 was represented by coordinating chairs of the B20 Employment taskforce, Ali Koç and Daniel Funes de Rioja; Labor20 was represented by Enis Bağdadioğlu from the Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions and Alison Tate from the International Trade Union Confederation; and Think20 was represented by Feride Inan from TEPAV, which is coordinating T20 Turkey.
"In the T20 sessions, parallel to G20, carried out in Moscow, in December 2012, an “alternative vision” of the global crisis was presented [Gaggero, Amico y Kupelian; 2012]. Many of the observations made at that moment are applicable to date.
A central question in today’s presentation, which was not developed at that time, is that of the sovereign debt restructurings. This topic requires to be addressed from the perspective of the need to construct a regulatory framework which provides stability to the sovereign debt restructurings. The uncertainty towards the current absence of regulation makes it virtually impossible for governments that are confronting a payments crisis, to face successful debt restructurings due to the future risk that the attacks of the Vulture Funds imply in the current international context..."
"This issue of the G20 Monitor reflects on the state of the G20 at the end of 2014, and offers suggestions for the path forward during Turkey’s 2015 G20 Presidency.
My paper identifies ambitious policy pursuits that will define a successful 2015 Presidency. There are also papers outlining the perspectives on the state of the G20 from participants in the Think20, the outreach grouping of professional G20 observers drawn from academia and think tanks that contributes to the G20 through analysis, ideas, and commentary."
Domenico Lombardi, Pierre Siklos and Samantha St. Amand
The period of unprecedented macroeconomic policy in the United States and the euro zone is entering a new phase. The global financial crisis sparked an aggressive, and highly experimental, period in US monetary policy that saw the federal funds rate hit the zero lower bound, where it still remains, while the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expanded by over US$3.5 trillion...
Feride İnan & Güneş Aşık
"The past few decades have been marked by the increasing integration and interconnectedness of the global economy, driven by trade-liberalizing policies, the removal of controls previously imposed on capital, and technological progress. The new global order is also characterized by the rise of emerging economies markets as significant global players, which has in turn reinforced the degree of global interconnectedness between all countries. The far-reaching global impact of the 2008 crisis, which began after the meltdown of the US subprime mortgage market, points to the breadth and depth of global connections and to the blurred boundaries between domestic and global economic affairs..."
Fatih Özatay, PhD
"The global financial crisis caused sharp output and employment losses in most of the advanced- and emerging-market economies, and triggered an intense discussion on how to achieve financial stability and design an optimal financial architecture to minimize the risk of occurrence of such a financial crisis once more. Obviously, this debate has focused on preventive measures and looks into “before” a financial crisis..."
Güven Sak, PhD.
"As the global economy continues to recover from the worst and most widespread economic crisis in recent decades, governments around the world face numerous challenges, of the most significant of which is unemployment. According to the World Bank’s World Development Report 2013 22 million jobs have been lost globally since the beginning of the crisis. The same report notes that 600 million jobs need to be created over the next fifteen years to sustain current employment rates..."
"The G20 leaders called for global action at the London summit (April 2009) by saying ‘We face the greatest challenge to the world economy in modern times; a crisis which has deepened since we last met, which affects the lives of women, men, and children in every country, and which all countries must join together to resolve. A global crisis requires a global solution.’ Since then I have been asking myself two questions: Are global solutions only required in times of global crisis? And, without a crisis agenda in the upcoming period, will the G20 become obsolete?
Researchers evaluated trends in inequality and national policies to tackle inequality in G-20 countries.
ANKARA – The Civil G20 group, composed of NGOs and academics from member states, convened in the context of the G20 activities this year under the presidency of Russia analyzed the national policies of member states in terms of reducing inequality. The Turkey chapter of the report, which also involved proposals for strong growth, was prepared by TEPAV.
The report, titled “Civil-20 Proposals for Strong, Sustainable, Balanced, and Inclusive Growth,” was prepared by a group of researchers from member states in partnership with the United Nations Development Programme and was coordinated by the International Organizations Research Institute of the National Research University Higher School of Economics (IORI HSE) and the G20 Research Group of the University of Toronto. The report presents a series of proposals to decision-makers of G20 countries and aims to contribute to the policy debate in member states on overcoming economic inequalities.
ANKARA- TEPAV Policy Note "From 'Washington Consensus' to 'Istanbul Decisions': Where do we go?" stated that Istanbul Decisions are of great importance with respect to both the future of the global system and to the position of Turkey in the new global system.
The Note prepared by TEPAV Director Prof. Dr. Güven Sak and Economic Policies Analyst Esen Caglar stated Istanbul Decisions point out that the first global crisis the world witnessed has been changing permanently the operation and approach of the World Bank and the IMF.
The note said "Taking a look at the document on Istanbul Decisions presented in the IMF web site, one can observe that the term "competition", frequently seen in old documents, is now replaced with the word "cooperation" ". The note maintained: